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1-3-15 saturday severe weather potential

Well, it looks like another Saturday in Dixie with severe potential across the area.  First we are going to start with where I am forecasting the potential of severe weather across the region.  It’s fairly similar to where the SPC is forecasting, with a few slight differences.

1-3-15-SEVERETHREAT

I am placing my highest threat of tornado potential from near Starkville, MS to Marion, AL.  Then from Aliceville, AL to Tylertown, MS in the south.  This is the area where the highest combination of moisture and wind shear look to come together later tomorrow afternoon and evening for the best potential for rotating storms.  There will also be a risk of damage winds, small hail, and local flooding across the entire orange shaded area….along with the risk of an isolated tornado.  If I were going to target an area personally it would be in the vicinity of Meridian, Mississippi.  The best combination of parameters look to come together in this area as potentially discrete storms move into the area after 3pm on Saturday.  I’ll throw a few maps up to give some reasoning…

NAM-21z-Dewpoints

Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60’s surge northward ahead of the cold front tomorrow in a mostly uncontaminated warm sector across Mississippi and Alabama.

NAM-00z

Simulated radar by 00z shows several large cells, potentially supercellular in nature, impacting the areas of East-Central/Southeast Mississippi into West Alabama.  The nose of a developing 50 kt low level jet is also interacting with these storms.  This is when I expect storms to meet maximum potential before pushing off toward the east.  Low level wind profiles favor the development of a few tornadoes.  This system is somewhat reminiscent of the December 23rd, 2014 system except with higher moisture content and the center of the activity being just a touch further east.

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018

Latest SPC Short Range Ensemble Forecast looks to agree with my current thoughts.  So, confidence is fairly good in terms of the area of impact for severe weather.  Stay close to a source of weather information as we head into the afternoon if you live in the potential impacted areas.  We will have live streams from the field and those will be posted accordingly tomorrow once crews hit the field.  Stay tuned!

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